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    【泽平宏观】6月经济开局平稳,央行未跟进美联储加息——高频研判之四十七和点评央行公开市场利率

    来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月17日 19:34:32
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    天天中彩票app_天天中彩票app世界杯_天天中彩票app官方版信誉老台子平台直属招商客服【微\Q】【99045161】诚招代理【在线开户网址um298.com】龙虎和龙虎1赔2.211合1赔9.95,定位胆1赔9.95腾讯5,10分欢乐生肖,最高返水100反9快,最高赔率。【泽平宏观】6月经济开局平稳,央行未跟进美联储加息——高频研判之四十七和点评央行公开市场利率

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    (6月)(车)(市)(开)(局)(走)(势)(相)(对)(平)(稳)(。零)(售)(同)(比)(增)(速)(-2%。考)(虑)(到)(6月)(第)(一)(周)(的)(高)(考)(因)(素)(等)(影)(响)(,6月)(初)(车)(市)(走)(势)(一)(般)(相)(对)(低)(迷)(。16年)(6月)(初)(的)(车)(市)(走)(势)(相)(对)(较)(强)(,主)(因)(去)(年)(的)(车)(市)(受)(到)(房)(地)(产)(暴)(涨)(的)(拉)(动)(。6月)(第)(一)(周)(的)(厂)(家)(批)(发)(增)(长)(较)(强)(,同)(比)(去)(年)(增)(速)(达)(到)(10%。主)(因)(去)(年)(月)(初)(端)(午)(因)(素)(的)(影)(响)(,导)(致)(去)(年)(的)(增)(速)(不)(快)(。今)(年)(4-5月)(的)(厂)(家)(批)(发)(调)(整)(力)(度)(较)(大)(,6月)(初)(部)(分)(企)(业)(走)(势)(更)(为)(顺)(畅)(。
    上)(周)(电)(影)(票)(房)(收)(入)(环)(比)(下)(降)(32.2%,较)(上)(一)(周)(下)(降)(86.7个)(百)(分)(点)(,观)(影)(人)(次)(和)(放)(映)(场)(次)(环)(比)(分)(别)(为)(-33.5%和)(-4.1%。这)(与)(前)(一)(周)(端)(午)(假)(期)(导)(致)(的)(高)(基)(数)(有)(关)(。同)(比)(来)(看)(,6月)(份)(票)(房)(收)(入)(、观)(影)(人)(次)(和)(放)(映)(场)(次)(分)(别)(为)(16.2%、18.8%和)(26.5%,分)(别)(高)(于)(、高)(于)(和)(低)(于)(5月)(的)(13.9%、11.4%和)(26.6%。近)(年)(来)(,暑)(期)(亲)(子)(、研)(学)(游)(占)(据)(市)(场)(重)(要)(地)(位)(,亲)(水)(、海)(岛)(、山)(岳)(是)(避)(暑)(旅)(游)(的)(主)(要)(形)(式)(。与)(避)(寒)(市)(场)(相)(比)(,避)(暑)(旅)(居)(地)(产)(中)(介)(机)(构)(发)(育)(尚)(不)(充)(分)(,将)(会)(成)(为)(旅)(游)(地)(产)(中)(介)(机)(构)(关)(注)(的)(新)(蓝)(海)(。下)(一)(步)(,避)(暑)(旅)(居)(医)(养)(方)(面)(的)(布)(局)(将)(更)(加)(活)(跃)(和)(主)(动)(。
    纺)(织)(原)(料)(价)(格)(同)(比)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(。本)(周)(中)(国)(纺)(织)(经)(济)(信)(息)(指)(数)(中)(的)(纱)(线)(价)(格)(指)(数)(环)(比)(上)(升)(0.23%,6月)(同)(比)(13.6%,与)(上)(周)(持)(平)(,低)(于)(5月)(同)(比)(14.4%。坯)(布)(价)(格)(指)(数)(环)(比)(下)(降)(0.04%,6月)(同)(比)(4.9%,与)(上)(周)(持)(平)(,低)(于)(5月)(同)(比)(5.1%。
    集)(装)(箱)(运)(价)(指)(数)(同)(比)(增)(速)(回)(升)(。上)(周)(上)(海)(出)(口)(集)(装)(箱)(运)(价)(指)(数)((SCFI)环)(比)(下)(降)(2.8%,6月)(同)(比)(59.1%,较)(上)(周)(下)(降)(2.3个)(百)(分)(点)(,高)(于)(5月)(同)(比)(53.3%。中)(国)(出)(口)(集)(装)(箱)(运)(价)(指)(数)((CCFI)环)(比)(上)(升)(0.2%,6月)(同)(比)(28.1%,较)(上)(周)(上)(升)(0.1个)(百)(分)(点)(,高)(于)(5月)(同)(比)(27.8%。
    2、中)(游)(:发)(电)(耗)(煤)(略)(降)(,钢)(价)(上)(升)(水)(泥)(进)(入)(淡)(季)(
    本)(周)(中)(油)(用)(电)(略)(有)(降)(低)(。6大)(发)(电)(集)(团)(日)(均)(耗)(煤)(量)(环)(比)(降)(低)(1.7%。截)(至)(6月)(15日)(,本)(月)(6大)(发)(电)(日)(均)(耗)(煤)(64.9万)(吨)(,较)(上)(周)(增)(加)(0.1万)(吨)(,高)(于)(5月)(的)(60.8万)(吨)(。6月)(发)(电)(耗)(煤)(量)(同)(比)(增)(加)(14.9%,较)(上)(周)(下)(降)(0.5个)(百)(分)(点)(,仍)(高)(于)(5月)(同)(比)(11.0%。
    国)(内)(钢)(厂)(复)(产)(回)(暖)(,上)(周)(全)(国)(高)(炉)(开)(工)(率)(为)(76.9%,环)(比)(增)(加)(0.7个)(百)(分)(点)(。上)(周)(盈)(利)(比)(率)(84.1%,环)(比)(降)(低)(0.6个)(百)(分)(点)(。本)(周)(螺)(纹)(钢)(价)(格)(持)(续)(上)(涨)(,截)(至)(6月)(15日)(,环)(比)(增)(加)(0.5%,螺)(纹)(钢)(价)(格)(6月)(同)(比)(64.9%,较)(上)(周)(减)(少)(0.6个)(百)(分)(点)(,高)(于)(5月)(同)(比)(48.0%。日)(粗)(钢)(产)(量)(5月)(同)(比)(-1.8%,低)(于)(4月)(的)(2.0%和)(3月)(的)(4.8%。螺)(纹)(钢)(库)(存)(环)(比)(下)(降)(1.8%,6月)(同)(比)(-2.4%,较)(5月)(的)(2.6%下)(降)(明)(显)(。
    水)(泥)(价)(格)(维)(持)(高)(位)(。本)(周)(水)(泥)(价)(格)(环)(比)(下)(降)(0.2%,6月)(同)(比)(上)(升)(32.4%,与)(上)(周)(基)(本)(持)(平)(,高)(于)(5月)(的)(32.2%。据)(数)(字)(水)(泥)(网)(统)(计)(,截)(至)(6月)(9日)(,全)(国)(水)(泥)(库)(容)(比)(为)(61.3%,高)(于)(5月)(的)(60.8%和)(4月)(的)(58.7%。考)(虑)(到)(货)(币)(政)(策)(偏)(紧)(以)(及)(天)(气)(等)(因)(素)(的)(影)(响)(,水)(泥)(价)(格)(或)(将)(进)(入)(淡)(季)(周)(期)(。
    化)(工)(产)(品)(价)(格)(涨)(跌)(互)(现)(。截)(至)(2017年)(6月)(15日)(,大)(宗)(商)(品)(价)(格)(涨)(跌)(榜)(中)(环)(比)(上)(升)(的)(商)(品)(有)(52种)(,集)(中)(在)(化)(工)(板)(块)(和)(钢)(铁)(板)(块)(;涨)(幅)(前)(3的)(商)(品)(分)(别)(是)(鸡)(蛋)((4.4%)、EPS(2.4%)、纯)(苯)((2.0%)。环)(比)(下)(降)(的)(商)(品)(共)(有)(50种)(,集)(中)(在)(化)(工)(和)(橡)(塑)(板)(块)(;跌)(幅)(前)(三)(的)(商)(品)(分)(别)(为)(WTI原)(油)((-3.7%)、Brent原)(油)((-3.5%)、己)(二)(酸)((-2.8%)。
    机)(械)(市)(场)(销)(售)(持)(续)(火)(爆)(。据)(中)(国)(汽)(车)(工)(业)(协)(会)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,5月)(挖)(掘)(机)(销)(售)(1.1万)(辆)(,同)(比)(增)(加)(106.0%,较)(上)(月)(增)(加)(4.9个)(百)(分)(点)(,增)(幅)(已)(连)(续)(三)(个)(月)(扩)(大)(。5月)(我)(国)(重)(卡)(销)(售)(9.8万)(辆)(,环)(比)(下)(降)(6.4%,同)(比)(增)(长)(50.1%。5月)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(保)(持)(较)(快)(增)(长)(,设)(备)(购)(置)(增)(速)(提)(高)(,工)(程)(机)(械)(需)(求)(增)(加)(。
    3、上)(游)(:油)(价)(持)(续)(下)(跌)(,有)(色)(震)(荡)(分)(化)(
    本)(周)(CRB工)(业)(原)(材)(料)(指)(数)(环)(比)(-0.5%,6月)(同)(比)(11.3%,与)(上)(周)(基)(本)(持)(平)(,高)(于)(5月)(同)(比)(10.9%。南)(华)(工)(业)(品)(指)(数)(环)(比)(2.1%,6月)(同)(比)(30.7%,较)(上)(周)(下)(降)(0.6个)(百)(分)(点)(,低)(于)(5月)(同)(比)(37.2;南)(华)(农)(产)(品)(指)(数)(环)(比)(0.8%,6月)(同)(比)(-1.6%,较)(上)(周)(增)(加)(0.6个)(百)(分)(点)(,低)(于)(5月)(同)(比)(6.3%。
    受)(美)(国)(经)(济)(数)(据)(不)(及)(预)(期)(以)(及)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(落)(地)(影)(响)(,美)(元)(指)(数)(大)(幅)(震)(荡)(,本)(周)(美)(元)(指)(数)(环)(比)(-0.1%,6月)(同)(比)(2.4,与)(上)(周)(基)(本)(持)(平)(,低)(于)(5月)(同)(比)(3.8%。在)(强)(势)(美)(元)(之)(下)(,黄)(金)(价)(格)(开)(始)(走)(弱)(,本)(周)(伦)(敦)(现)(货)(黄)(金)(环)(比)(上)(升)(0.2%,6月)(同)(比)(1.6%,较)(上)(周)(增)(加)(2.0个)(百)(分)(点)(,高)(于)(5月)(同)(比)(-1.7%。
    由)(于)(美)(油)(库)(存)(量)(超)(预)(期)(,WTI原)(油)(价)(格)(跌)(破)(45美)(元)(/桶)(的)(支)(撑)(位)(,录)(得)(近)(七)(个)(月)(以)(来)(的)(最)(低)(点)(。本)(周)(WTI原)(油)(价)(格)(环)(比)(下)(降)(2.0%,6月)(同)(比)(-7.1%,较)(上)(周)(下)(降)(3.2个)(百)(分)(点)(,低)(于)(5月)(同)(比)(3.0%。欧)(佩)(克)(月)(报)(称)(,欧)(佩)(克)(5月)(原)(油)(增)(产)(33.6万)(桶)(至)(3214万)(桶)(/日)(,创)(2016年)(12月)(以)(来)(新)(高)(。美)(国)(方)(面)(,美)(国)(原)(油)(库)(存)(和)(汽)(油)(库)(存)(量)(均)(超)(预)(期)(。6月)(9日)(当)(周)(EIA原)(油)(库)(存)(减)(少)(166.1万)(桶)(/日)(,预)(期)(减)(少)(255.0万)(桶)(/日)(;汽)(油)(库)(存)(增)(加)(209.6万)(桶)(/日)(,预)(期)(减)(少)(115.0万)(桶)(/日)(。随)(后)(,油)(价)(应)(声)(下)(跌)(2.8%,跌)(破)(45美)(元)(/桶)(支)(撑)(位)(。IEA月)(报)(显)(示)(,5月)(全)(球)(原)(油)(供)(应)(增)(加)(58.5万)(桶)(/日)(,其)(中)(美)(国)(原)(油)(产)(量)(增)(加)(43万)(桶)(/日)(;原)(油)(库)(存)(方)(面)(几)(无)(变)(动)(。综)(合)(来)(看)(,原)(油)(供)(给)(端)(不)(断)(发)(力)(,终)(端)(需)(求)(不)(振)(,市)(场)(供)(大)(于)(求)(,预)(计)(油)(价)(短)(期)(将)(低)(位)(震)(荡)(。
    有)(色)(震)(荡)(分)(化)(。LME铜)(本)(周)(环)(比)(0.7%,6月)(同)(比)(21.8%,较)(上)(周)(增)(加)(1.3个)(百)(分)(点)(,高)(于)(5月)(同)(比)(18.6%。LME铝)(价)(格)(周)(环)(比)(-0.8%,6月)(同)(比)(19.4%,较)(上)(周)(减)(少)(3.8个)(百)(分)(点)(,低)(于)(5月)(同)(比)(22.7%。LME锌)(价)(格)(周)(环)(比)(0.4%,6月)(同)(比)(22.5%,较)(上)(周)(降)(低)(2.2个)(百)(分)(点)(,低)(于)(5月)(同)(比)(38.3%。
    国)(内)(外)(货)(运)(价)(格)(增)(速)(上)(升)(。本)(周)(波)(罗)(的)(海)(干)(散)(货)(指)(数)((BDI)环)(比)(增)(加)(1.9%,6月)(同)(比)(38.5%,较)(上)(周)(增)(加)(2.3个)(百)(分)(点)(,低)(于)(5月)(同)(比)(57.0%。上)(周)(中)(国)(沿)(海)(干)(散)(货)(运)(价)(指)(数)((CCBFI)环)(比)(上)(升)(1.1%,6月)(同)(比)(19.6%,低)(于)(5月)(同)(比)(24.6%。
    4、价)(格)(:菜)(价)(升)(猪)(价)(降)(,燃)(油)(价)(格)(增)(速)(回)(落)(
    本)(周)(农)(业)(部)(28种)(重)(点)(监)(测)(蔬)(菜)(平)(均)(批)(发)(价)(环)(比)(上)(涨)(3.5%,前)(海)(蔬)(菜)(批)(发)(价)(格)(指)(数)(环)(比)(上)(涨)(1.6%,山)(东)(地)(区)(的)(蔬)(菜)(批)(发)(价)(格)(指)(数)(环)(比)(上)(涨)(28.8%。农)(业)(部)(28种)(重)(点)(监)(测)(蔬)(菜)(平)(均)(批)(发)(价)(、前)(海)(蔬)(菜)(批)(发)(价)(格)(指)(数)(和)(山)(东)(地)(区)(的)(蔬)(菜)(批)(发)(价)(格)(指)(数)(6月)(同)(比)(分)(别)(为)(0.4%、-1.2%和)(-3.4%,分)(别)(较)(上)(周)(上)(升)(1.2、下)(降)(0.2和)(上)(升)(9.3个)(百)(分)(点)(,分)(别)(高)(于)(、低)(于)(和)(高)(于)(5月)(的)(-6.6%、-0.3%和)(-17.6%。
    本)(周)(农)(业)(部)(猪)(肉)(平)(均)(批)(发)(价)(环)(比)(下)(跌)(0.7%,6月)(同)(比)(下)(跌)(25.1%,较)(上)(周)(下)(降)(0.5个)(百)(分)(点)(,低)(于)(5月)(的)(-21.4%。36个)(城)(市)(猪)(肉)(平)(均)(零)(售)(价)(环)(比)(下)(跌)(0.2%,6月)(同)(比)(下)(跌)(11.2%,较)(上)(周)(下)(降)(0.4个)(百)(分)(点)(,低)(于)(5月)(的)(-7.3%。36个)(城)(市)(牛)(肉)(和)(羊)(肉)(平)(均)(零)(售)(价)(6月)(同)(比)(分)(别)(为)(-1.6%和)(-2.5%,分)(别)(低)(于)(和)(高)(于)(5月)(的)(-1.4%和)(-2.9%。36个)(城)(市)(草)(鱼)(和)(鲢)(鱼)(平)(均)(零)(售)(价)(6月)(同)(比)(分)(别)(为)(11.3%和)(3.8%,均)(高)(于)(5月)(的)(11.1%和)(3.1%。
    全)(国)(成)(品)(油)(价)(格)(增)(速)(继)(续)(回)(落)(。本)(周)(全)(国)(成)(品)(油)(价)(格)(指)(数)(环)(比)(下)(跌)(0.7%,6月)(同)(比)(上)(涨)(8.1%,较)(上)(周)(下)(降)(0.4个)(百)(分)(点)(,低)(于)(5月)(的)(12.2%。
    5、货)(币)(:美)(联)(储)(如)(期)(加)(息)(,我)(国)(央)(行)(预)(计)(不)(会)(再)(度)(跟)(进)(
    本)(周)(央)(行)(公)(开)(市)(场)(共)(有)(2100亿)(逆)(回)(购)(到)(期)(,周)(一)(至)(周)(五)(分)(别)(到)(期)(400亿)(、0亿)(、700亿)(、600亿)(和)(400亿)(。本)(周)(一)(到)(周)(四)(,央)(行)(公)(开)(市)(场)(分)(别)(进)(行)(400亿)(、500亿)(、900亿)(和)(1500亿)(逆)(回)(购)(操)(作)(。
    美)(联)(储)(6月)(议)(息)(会)(议)(结)(束)(后)(宣)(布)(:(1)加)(息)(25个)(BP,联)(邦)(基)(金)(利)(率)(调)(升)(至)(1%-1.25%,预)(计)(年)(内)(将)(再)(有)(一)(次)(加)(息)(;(2)预)(计)(今)(年)(起)(开)(始)(缩)(表)(,具)(体)(方)(式)(为)(逐)(步)(减)(少)(到)(期)(证)(券)(的)(本)(金)(再)(投)(资)(规)(模)(。我)(国)(央)(行)(再)(度)(跟)(进)(的)(可)(能)(性)(和)(必)(要)(性)(下)(降)(:一)(是)(国)(内)(广)(谱)(利)(率)(已)(经)(提)(前)(抬)(升)(,提)(前)(量)(充)(足)(,没)(有)(必)(要)(再)(跟)(随)(;二)(是)(国)(内)(需)(求)(端)(二)(次)(探)(底)(,宏)(观)(经)(济)(环)(境)(不)(支)(持)(货)(币)(政)(策)(继)(续)(收)(紧)(;三)(是)(为)(保)(汇)(率)(而)(加)(息)(的)(必)(要)(性)(下)(降)(。周)(四)(当)(天)(的)(逆)(回)(购)(操)(作)(未)(上)(调)(政)(策)(利)(率)(,早)(盘)(国)(债)(期)(货)(一)(度)(拉)(升)(。
    截)(至)(6月)(16日)(,1天)(期)(银)(行)(间)(回)(购)(加)(权)(利)(率)(为)(2.8579%,较)(上)(周)(下)(降)(3.01个)(BP;7天)(期)(银)(行)(间)(回)(购)(加)(权)(利)(率)(为)(3.2693%,较)(上)(周)(上)(升)(4.77个)(BP。1天)(期)(存)(款)(类)(机)(构)(回)(购)(加)(权)(利)(率)(为)(2.8033%,较)(上)(周)(下)(降)(2.82个)(BP;7天)(期)(存)(款)(类)(机)(构)(回)(购)(加)(权)(利)(率)(为)(2.8899%,较)(上)(周)(下)(降)(2.37个)(BP。1年)(期)(国)(债)(收)(益)(率)(为)(3.5941%,较)(上)(周)(下)(降)(6.33个)(BP;10年)(期)(国)(债)(收)(益)(率)(为)(3.5554%,较)(上)(周)(下)(降)(7.49个)(BP。
    珠)(三)(角)(票)(据)(直)(贴)(利)(率)((月)(息)()和)(长)(三)(角)(票)(据)(直)(贴)(利)(率)((月)(息)()均)(较)(上)(周)(上)(升)(1.0个)(BP,票)(据)(转)(贴)(利)(率)((月)(息)()亦)(上)(升)(1.0个)(BP。本)(周)(不)(同)(期)(限)(的)(信)(用)(利)(差)(分)(化)(,1年)(期)(AAA企)(业)(债)(的)(信)(用)(利)(差)(扩)(大)(1.07个)(BP,10年)(期)(AAA企)(业)(债)(的)(信)(用)(利)(差)(缩)(窄)(1.51个)(BP。
    人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(继)(续)(小)(幅)(升)(值)(,远)(期)(贬)(值)(压)(力)(减)(小)(。本)(周)(美)(元)(兑)(人)(民)(币)(中)(间)(价)(升)(值)(0.18%,美)(元)(兑)(人)(民)(币)(即)(期)(汇)(率)(升)(值)(0.03%,离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(升)(值)(0.00%。在)(岸)(和)(离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(价)(差)(由)(上)(周)(的)(0.0124缩)(小)(至)(0.0106,美)(元)(兑)(人)(民)(币)(1年)(期)(外)(汇)(远)(期)(买)(报)(价)(下)(降)(5个)(BP。
    图)(表)(1:30大)(中)(城)(市)(地)(产)(销)(售)(降)(幅)(缩)(窄)(
    图)(表)(2:六)(大)(发)(电)(日)(均)(耗)(煤)(同)(比)(趋)(稳)(
    图)(表)(3:菜)(价)(同)(比)(增)(速)(回)(升)(,猪)(价)(同)(比)(增)(速)(回)(落)(
    图)(表)(4:短)(期)(资)(金)(利)(率)(上)(行)(
    央)(行)(果)(然)(未)(跟)(进)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(:货)(币)(政)(策)(可)(能)(不)(会)(更)(紧)(了)(——点)(评)(央)(行)(公)(开)(市)(场)(利)(率)(
    事)(件)(:继)(美)(联)(储)(凌)(晨)(加)(息)(之)(后)(,中)(国)(央)(行)(今)(日)(维)(持)(7天)(、14天)(、28天)(期)(逆)(回)(购)(操)(作)(中)(标)(利)(率)(分)(别)(在)(2.45%、2.6%、2.75%。均)(与)(上)(次)(持)(平)(,未)(像)(3月)(份)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(那)(样)(调)(高)(公)(开)(市)(场)(操)(作)(利)(率)(。
    点)(评)(:
    1)核)(心)(观)(点)(:美)(联)(储)(今)(天)(凌)(晨)(加)(息)(25bp之)(后)(,中)(国)(央)(行)(维)(持)(公)(开)(市)(场)(操)(作)(利)(率)(不)(变)(,没)(有)(再)(像)(今)(年)(3月)(份)(和)(1月)(份)(一)(样)(跟)(进)(加)(息)(。这)(释)(放)(出)(重)(要)(信)(号)(:货)(币)(政)(策)(还)(是)(紧)(的)(,但)(可)(能)(不)(会)(更)(紧)(了)(!
    这)(与)(我)(们)(今)(晨)(报)(告)(中)(的)(预)(判)(完)(全)(一)(致)(。在)(今)(天)(凌)(晨)(的)(报)(告)(《美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(,下)(半)(年)(缩)(表)(——点)(评)(17年)(6月)(美)(联)(储)(议)(息)(会)(议)(》中)(,我)(们)(明)(确)(提)(出)(:中)(国)(央)(行)(再)(度)(跟)(进)(的)(可)(能)(性)(和)(必)(要)(性)(下)(降)(。原)(因)(有)(三)(:一)(是)(国)(内)(广)(谱)(利)(率)(已)(经)(提)(前)(抬)(升)(,提)(前)(量)(充)(足)(,没)(有)(必)(要)(再)(跟)(随)(。二)(是)(国)(内)(需)(求)(端)(二)(次)(探)(底)(,宏)(观)(经)(济)(环)(境)(不)(支)(持)(货)(币)(政)(策)(继)(续)(收)(紧)(。三)(是)(为)(保)(汇)(率)(而)(加)(息)(的)(必)(要)(性)(下)(降)(。
    随)(着)(经)(济)(通)(胀)(回)(落)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(边)(际)(不)(会)(更)(紧)(,监)(管)(维)(稳)(,我)(们)(维)(持)(债)(市)(配)(置)(价)(值)(凸)(显)(、股)(市)(风)(险)(偏)(好)(修)(复)(的)(判)(断)(。
    2)央)(行)(此)(举)(释)(放)(出)(积)(极)(信)(号)(,表)(明)(货)(币)(政)(策)(可)(能)(不)(会)(更)(紧)(了)(。接)(下)(来)(为)(了)(配)(合)(金)(融)(监)(管)(,政)(策)(利)(率)(或)(许)(仍)(会)(维)(持)(在)(当)(前)(水)(平)(,但)(货)(币)(政)(策)(环)(境)(整)(体)(而)(言)(可)(能)(不)(会)(更)(紧)(了)(。美)(联)(储)(3月)(份)(加)(息)(公)(告)(发)(布)(之)(后)(,中)(国)(央)(行)(在)(当)(天)(就)(采)(取)(跟)(随)(策)(略)(,上)(调)(7天)(、14天)(、28天)(期)(逆)(回)(购)(操)(作)(中)(标)(利)(率)(10bp,同)(时)(6个)(月)(、1年)(期)(中)(期)(借)(贷)(便)(利)(中)(标)(利)(率)(也)(分)(别)(上)(调)(10bp,实)(行)(“准)(加)(息)(”。而)(今)(天)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(之)(后)(,中)(国)(央)(行)(维)(持)(公)(开)(市)(场)(利)(率)(不)(变)(,并)(未)(跟)(随)(加)(息)(。
    3)国)(内)(经)(济)(通)(胀)(回)(落)(,避)(免)(实)(体)(经)(济)(融)(资)(成)(本)(上)(升)(也)(成)(为)(央)(行)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(重)(要)(考)(虑)(,这)(意)(味)(着)(三)(季)(度)(以)(后)(货)(币)(政)(策)(也)(很)(难)(更)(紧)(。最)(新)(发)(布)(的)(5月)(经)(济)(数)(据)(确)(认)(房)(地)(产)(销)(售)(、货)(币)(金)(融)(条)(件)(等)(先)(行)(指)(标)(均)(已)(见)(顶)(回)(落)(,库)(存)(周)(期)(、房)(地)(产)(周)(期)(和)(金)(融)(杠)(杆)(周)(期)(开)(始)(下)(行)(。我)(们)(预)(计)(下)(半)(年)(以)(后)(企)(业)(盈)(利)(也)(将)(逐)(步)(下)(滑)(。
    4)国)(内)(广)(谱)(利)(率)(已)(经)(提)(前)(抬)(升)(,提)(前)(量)(充)(足)(,央)(行)(也)(完)(全)(没)(有)(必)(要)(再)(跟)(随)(加)(息)(。4月)(份)(以)(来)(受)(金)(融)(监)(管)(和)(金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(,中)(国)(的)(广)(谱)(利)(率)(已)(经)(大)(幅)(抬)(升)(。4月)(以)(来)(,3个)(月)(和)(6个)(月)(同)(业)(存)(单)(发)(行)(利)(率)(上)(升)(了)(0.7个)(百)(分)(点)(,进)(入)(六)(月)(份)(以)(来)(短)(期)(的)(1个)(月)(同)(业)(存)(单)(发)(行)(利)(率)(也)(迅)(速)(由)(4.2%飙)(升)(5.2%以)(上)(。0.7%的)(利)(率)(上)(升)(相)(当)(于)(隐)(含)(了)(2-3次)(加)(息)(,“提)(前)(量)(”充)(足)(。而)(另)(一)(方)(面)(,同)(期)(美)(债)(收)(益)(率)(却)(缓)(步)(下)(行)(,以)(10年)(期)(国)(债)(收)(益)(率)(衡)(量)(的)(中)(美)(利)(差)(由)(年)(初)(的)(0.6%扩)(大)(至)(1.4%之)(上)(,达)(到)(去)(年)(7月)(份)(以)(来)(的)(高)(点)(。
    5)为)(保)(汇)(率)(而)(收)(紧)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(必)(要)(性)(也)(大)(大)(减)(弱)(。短)(期)(汇)(率)(由)(双)(边)(利)(率)(平)(价)(决)(定)(,利)(差)(扩)(大)(意)(味)(着)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(贬)(值)(压)(力)(的)(减)(小)(。而)(5月)(26日)(逆)(周)(期)(因)(子)(的)(纳)(入)(也)(在)(短)(期)(有)(助)(于)(推)(升)(人)(民)(币)(兑)(美)(元)(汇)(率)(升)(值)(。
    6)我)(们)(自)(2016年)(10月)(以)(来)(基)(于)(滞)(涨)(和)(去)(杠)(杆)(一)(直)(看)(空)(债)(市)(,近)(期)(提)(出)(,无)(论)(从)(基)(本)(面)(还)(是)(从)(估)(值)(来)(看)(,债)(市)(开)(始)(具)(备)(配)(置)(价)(值)(。我)(们)(在)(6月)(4日)(周)(报)(提)(出)(“近)(期)(监)(管)(维)(稳)(,市)(场)(短)(暂)(喘)(息)(。”我)(们)(维)(持)(股)(市)(风)(险)(偏)(好)(修)(复)(的)(判)(断)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
    责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
    )


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